India-Nepal

Introduction

The strategic location, civilizational linkages and ethnic familiarities have laid base to conducive relations between India and Nepal. In the era of the Asian Century, the power balance between New Delhi and Kathmandu is critical to cooperation and harmony in the South Asian region.

Issues

Party Centric Relationship: The new incumbent government in Nepal is headed by a political party that has an unfavourable stand towards India. Hence India needs to be careful in its engagements with Nepal so that its relationship does not become a party centric one like that of Indo- Bangladesh relation

Conclusion

India needs to leverage its historical, geographical and cultural familiarity in its relations with Nepal and follow subtle diplomacy rather than a coercive one in the spirit of an elder brother rather than a big brother.

India – Maldives

The recent political scenario in the Maldives with the breakdown of democracy and the suspension of law and order institutions through an emergency raises great concerns for India. The rise of a dictatorial regime in its neighbourhood coupled by China’s ‘peaceful rise’ and strategic embrace provides India with a conundrum of problems.

Should India intervene?

Yes

Restoration of Democracy: As the world’s largest democracy, India has a moral objective of ensuring that democratic structures all over the world thrive. It can use its diplomatic engagements in multilateral forums to revive the Maldivian democracy
Strategic Location: the Maldives is pivotal to ensuring India’s maritime security in the backdrop of rising Chinese extra-regional presence in the Indian ocean and the shifting of piracy line. Guarding against these traditional and non-traditional threats, India and Maldives have already signed a trilateral agreement on maritime security with Srilanka
Peaceful South Asia: A peaceful and stable South Asia is in India’s best interests for economic engagements and to limit the export of fundamentalism. SAARC can be leveraged to achieve the same in the Maldives
China’s Strategic Embrace: A non-democratic regime is more susceptible to China’s cheque book diplomacy and strategic embrace while democracies in India’s neighbourhood seek to balance China’s power with Indian autonomy.
- Usage of the port at Gadhoo in South Maldives – a threat to India’s maritime security
Import of Radicalization: Under the current administration, Maldives has witnessed growing radicalization tendencies that could in the future find its way to India through the West coast

No

Introduction: Disastrous interventions: IPKF in Sri Lanka alienating the Tamil population of Jaffna

Economic Blockade imposed on Nepal, Change of constitution of Nepal – alienated Nepal from India and pushed it to strategic embrace of China

Successful Interventions: Liberation of East Pakistan – 1971war successfully set up democratic institutions in Bangladesh against authoritarian repressions from West Pakistan

Big Brother Attitude: In the past, India’s interventions in sovereign affairs of neighbouring nations have had counter-productive results most recently witnessed in India’s pressure on Nepal to change the constitution.
Violation of Panchasheel: India’s neighbourhood policy is guided by the Panchasheel that emphasised on the principle of non-interference with neighbouring nations
Strategic Embrace of China: Excessive interference may alienate Maldives from Indian engagements and lead them to an embrace with China which can be detrimental to India’s maritime security
Loss of Manpower

Issues in India-Maldives Relation

Cooperation with Pakistan: Maldives has for the first time invited the Pakistan Navy for joint patrols in the Indian ocean till now the exclusive domain of the Indian Navy
Emergency in Maldives: India refused support for the Maldivian Government when emergency was imposed by rejecting its special envoy to India. India had criticized the Maldivian Government for the imposition of the emergency and had asked to restore normal democracy in the island Nation
Proximity with China: Maldives and China have gotten closer with each other as evidenced by the Free Trade Agreement as well as the Gadoo port taken over by China in Maldives
Big Brother Attitude of India: India has ardently pitched for restoration of democracy in Maldives even questioning the credibility of the election and treatment of judiciary by the Maldivian Government.

Conclusion

The Island Nation has been India’s all-weather friend since long and recent strains in India- Maldives relationship coupled with India’s assertive nature has caused Male to move away from an India First Policy. New Delhi must engage peacefully and restore its good relationship with Male wary of China’s strategic embrace. Lessons from Nepal and Myanmar would serve India best to limit its Big Brother Attitude towards vital neighbours.

Why Maldives?

Strategic Location of the Island Nation
Blue Diplomacy to drive economic growth using maritime resources
Medical Tourism opportunities for Maldivian population in India
Growing Influence of China in the Indian Ocean Region
Multilateral Diplomacy: UN, SAARC, SAARTAC, SASEC, UNSC: India had recently voted in favour of Maldives for its membership to the UNSC

Cooperation

Naval Cooperation: The strategic location of Maldives is pivotal to securing maritime security of the Indo-Pacific. India and Maldives are part of the IONS and have exhibited continued cooperation in maritime security
Defence Cooperation: India had transferred Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters (DALHs)

Read All notes by Ravisankar Sarma

INDIA – PAKISTAN

Issues

Terrorism: The threat of export of terror from Pakistan continues unabated. Pakistan has done little to gain India’s and the world’s trust in the fight against terror. FATF recently grey listed Pakistan asking it to step up action against terror financing
- The politicization of terror outfit LeT and allowing it to stand for elections is testimony to this
Separatism: Pakistan continues to be an irritant extra state actor in fuelling separatism in parts of Kashmir. The increased weaponry in the valley is a testament to the extra-state influence

Current Scenario on Dialogue

Pakistan rejects any dialogue without resolution of Kashmir issue – it has been referring to Human right violations in Kashmir. India has rejected dialogue without Pakistan acting on terror.

India is leveraging multilateral platforms to voice its concern over Pakistan being a safe haven for terrorists (in both U.N and the BRICS). It opines that no dialogue is possible without Pakistan taking strict counter terrorism measures and end its tolerance and support for domestic terror outfits

KARTARPUR SAHIB PILGRIM CORRIDOR:

Pakistan has offered to provide infrastructure and connectivity to the Kartarpur Shrine that hosts holy place of the Sikhs, the resting place of Guru Nanak. The commissioning of the corridor can provide people-to-people exchange and can help build confidence in a very hostile relation between the 2 nations.

On the other side, the corridor also raises security concerns with Pakistans border infrastructure reaching to the Indian border. Sikh Gurudwaras have also functioned as centres of Sikh Militancy and sceptics fear the Gurudwara on the other side of the boundary could become breeding ground for Khalistan Demand and Militancy

Way Forward

The J&K government has asked the Centre to restart dialogue and reconciliation with Pakistan targeting peace in the valley. The Atal Doctrine is said to be an ideal resolution for the Kashmir issue.

CROSS LOC TRADE

Major confidence-building measure between India and Pakistan
Reinitiated after cases of drug smuggling in the aftermath of Uri attack
Goods are exchanged in a barter system

China-Pakistan Nexus

Conclusion: India must not view its relation with China through the prism of China-Pakistan relationship that is getting more intense and proximate as evidenced by trade of defence equipment, ammunition and the CPEC

Conclusion for India-Pakistan

The dawn of a new civilian government provides India yet another opportunity to start another chapter of friendship that has oft been cut short by the other. India must look to strengthen the civilian government’s arm and increase confidence-building measures of increased trade and people to people exchange.